The projected number of light duty vehicles in 50 years is 2 billion and the projected average driving distance is 16093 km/year (CMI, Princeton). Projected fuel consumption is 10 L/100 km. It is assumed that the projected carbon emissions of 16 Gt C/year, 50 years from now, are based on these values for vehicle usage.
It is assumed that the specific gravity of gasoline is 0.74 kg/L and the percent carbon by weight of gasoline is 85%. A 25% carbon overhead is included when calculating the carbon released from burning gasoline to account for production and refining of gasoline (CMI, Princeton).
Decreasing the number of vehicles that are present 50 years from now from 2 billion to about 1.4 billion is assumed to be realistic. Decreasing fuel consumption from 10 L/100 km to 3 L/100 km is assumed to be realistic. Decreasing average yearly driving distance from 16,093 km to 8000 km is assumed to be realistic.
Efficiency of Coal Plants (%)
46
80
40
Amount of Power Produced by Coal Plants (TWh/y)
13000
25000
0
Number of Lights (in Billions)
33.0
70
5
Percentage of Lights that are Fluorescent
4
100
0
Increase in Efficiency of Newly Constructed Buildings
0.0
100
0
Coal Power Replaced by Wind Power (TWh/y)
0
13000
0
Coal Power Replaced by Photovoltaic Solar Power(TWh/y)
0
13000
0
Coal Power Replaced by Concentrated Solar Power(TWh/y)
0
13000
0
Coal Power Replaced by Nuclear Power(TWh/y)
0
13000
0
Coal Power With Installed CCS(TWh/y)
0
13000
0
Geothermal Power Generation (GW)
0
300
0
Percentage of Cars Using Biofuel
0
100
0
Thousands of square km deforested annually
130
400
0
Conservation Tilled Farmland (km2)
0
49000000
0
Vehicle Efficiency and Use
Reality Check
realistic
not realistic
Show/Hide Assumptions
Applet Name: Carbon Stabilization Wedges
Version/Date: 2.0.1, July 21, 2016
Author(s): Theo Keeler, Anna Schwalfenberg, Darrell Vandenbrink, Joseph Zondervan, Dr. Peter Mahaffy and Dr. Brian Martin
Contact: Visit www.kcvs.ca for contact information
This digital learning object shows the potential increase in carbon emissions over the next 50 years and allows you to interact with various technologies to predict their effects on carbon output. All values in the applet represent projected values for 50 years from now, rather than current values. Try to stabilize carbon output over the next 50 years by adjusting the different sliders in the different strategies, while still keeping the Reality Check realistic.
The strategies can be found in the toolbar at the top of the page.
Remember that changes you make to one wedge can also affect other wedges.